Morning Commentary

Category: Sell Grain

Cargill Morning Commentary - Jan 30, 2019

Good Morning!

Seems it will be a busy day with the Political pundits across the world discussing what the outcome of the US-China meetings would be, whereas the traders look positive as the overall market is up at open today. It would be interesting to get some validation on the US export numbers to China that were rumored to be traded, but USDA has not confirmed anything so far. Another watch out is the slowing Chinese economy as we hear the govt providing stimulus to certain sectors, this can cause a further alarm in the coming weeks if the Chinese companies report strenuous financial results. Overall, a news full day as we wait US Fed to communicate their tone on further rate hikes and the day 1 of the meetings

Crude oil: $53.26, up 2% today as the US sanctions on the Venezuelan Oil company kicks in , supporting CAD

CAD at 75.76,  up ~30 points as the Canadian crude up 2% on expected increased flow to US refineries. 

Hard Red Spring Wheat - futures up a 2c, up from a couple days of red and trading May 19 @ 5.73, with March-May spreads at (3.25c). Egypt ended up buying French wheat, as Russia taps out due to higher price. US still waiting for demand to show up. 

Corn- corn May at $3.88 with mar-may spreads at (8.75c), with corn up ~2.5c; With Chinese new year starting Feb 4, lasting 10 days, we expect the futures movement to slow down. USDA has been reporting the old sales out of US, so wouldn't move the markets; would wait for next Ethanol production as that might move corn a little.

Soybeans – beans up 3c as March-May spreads at (13.5c), as funds go long beans ahead of the trade meeting beans, moving up the entire soy complex. Weather playing safe for now, with enough beans available in the world, a couple million tons of lost crop in Brazil wouldn't really move the markets up side down.

Canola – Canola down 20c/mt for May and 60c up for March and currently at $485.1/mt (march). CAD moving up doesn't help either to get the demand coming.The next 2 weeks would be slow due Chinese new year, Polar vortex and traders waiting for some positive confirmation on the Huawei and US-China spat.

The Cargill Network

Tags: market, Corn, Soybeans, Wheat, Canola, chart, futures, sell grain

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